Dynamics Modeling Of the Educational System

Abstract

This work proposes a modelling process of the dynamics of the educational system as a complex system. In fact, the educational system is a system which is self-organized, and it is characterized by a non-stationary dynamics. This results in the difficulty to proceed to a rational modelling that would allow an accurate prediction of its behaviour in response to a given decision. Therefore, the modelling process of the dynamics of the educational system focuses more on how change happens within the system. In this process we consider the state of the educational system at any time that we note as the overall distribution of the number of students by levels and cycles of education. The objective is to calculate the transition of the state of the system from a known state to the next state ; this transition of the state is conditioned by the flow parameters and the schooling parameters whose variation implies that of the dynamics of the educational system. To account for the difficulty of making accurate prediction about flow parameters, the model must allow prospecting various scenarios based on different hypotheses about these parameters. To validate our model, we would like to implement it to the case of primary education of Moroccan system about which we have enough information on the decade between 2002-2003 and 2012-2013. The validation is performed by comparing simulation / reality on this period.