Calculation of the Significance of Hazard Causative Factors

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the actual problem of the estimation of hazard casual factors significance. Indices characterizing the significance of hazard casual factors in the occurrence of elementary undesirable events at potential hazard facility are proposed as well as indices of significance factors in accident occurrence. Algorithms for such calculation are described. Proposed indices are not alternative to probabilistic safety assessment indices but afford additional opportunity for analysis. Required precedent conditions for the significance indices calculation are described: knowledge base about factors and their impact on basic events occurrence made by the Method of Expert Evaluation Scales; formalized description of relations between basic events and an accident in the disjunctive-normal form; description of the situation when the situational significance of casual factors has to be calculated. The proposed indices can be used during the analysis of hazard casual factors. The algorithms proposed for the calculation of significance indices orient for developers of situational emergency centers, automated systems for hazard analytic at potential hazard facilities, particularly analytic systems of business projects when hazard technology is used.